2025 TCA Predictions

Severance got three Individual Achievement in Drama nominations, a feat only accomplished by three other dramas in history. It has also been championed by critics far before audiences caught on, so the TCA is the awards body most likely to shower Severance with love. Adolescence is a much more dominant show in its respective category and feels unstoppable at the Emmys, but Severance’s historic TCA feat should give it the edge.

Though The Studio feels solidly ahead of Hacks in the Comedy Series race, the latter should have an advantage here as a critics’ darling and the reigning champ in this category. Hacks has never been stronger as a show when it comes to its awards run, its critical reception, or its viewership, and it has also never been more relevant. It also received multiple nominations in Individual Achievement in Comedy for Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder respectively, while Seth Rogen was the lone nomination for The Studio. Even if Hacks loses the top prize at the Emmys, I think it wins this award. But for what it’s worth, The Rehearsal is a masterpiece that I will root for in almost every category it is in.

My reasoning for predicting Severance in Program of the Year applies here as well, as the Program of the Year winner usually wins an Outstanding Achievement award. The Pitt is the little show that could and seems to be the people’s choice for Drama Series if there is one, but its critical reception was surprisingly muted compared to its audience reception. It certainly has momentum, but I think Katherine LaNasa would have been nominated for Individual Achievement in Drama if it was winning. 

Adolescence is winning the Best Miniseries Emmy. It is one of the most talked about shows of the year, with impressive critical ratings, viewership numbers, and audience reception. It will also win here handily, and I do not think there is an argument for any other show when The Penguin failed to land a single Individual Achievement in Drama nomination while Adolescence nabbed two. Dying for Sex did get an Individual Achievement in Comedy nomination for Michelle Williams, but that show is far smaller and also not as critically adored as Adolescence. This will almost certainly be the first of many wins to come for the Netflix miniseries.

This category is honestly a toss-up, as The Studio and The Pitt are beloved by critics and audiences alike and are win-competitive at the Emmys. They are the only shows nominated that are also in the Program of the Year lineup, so it is almost certainly down to these two. However, I give the slight edge to The Studio because 1. the former had more immediate critical acclaim when their respective embargos dropped and 2. it seems like too strong of an overall contender to blank at the TCAs. 

Jean Smart can very easily pick up another TCA trophy for Hacks, and deservingly so, but I suspect that Hannah Einbinder’s presence in this category will siphon away a number of votes. Seth Rogen could also win as the director, writer, and lead actor of The Studio, but the Individual Achievement categories tend to award actresses. Quinta Brunson, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, and Donald Glover did win as multi-hyphenates, but I do think that despite being extremely likely for the Emmy win, Seth Rogen is perceived too much as an actor who plays himself to win this category. That brings me to Michelle Williams in Dying for Sex, whom I may be going out on a limb for. She is a previous TCA winner for Fosse/Verdon and dominates Dying for Sex from beginning to end, blending humor and heart masterfully. She could very well win an Emmy for this role, and if she is the frontrunner, this award would make complete sense as a precursor. I would personally vote for Nathan Fielder, however, as The Rehearsal is such a singular vision that could not be possible without his work in front of and behind the camera.

As previously mentioned, the Individual Achievement categories tend to award actresses. Kathy Bates and Britt Lower are the only two women nominated, and of the two, Bates is the one who will not be facing internal votesplitting. That being said, I adore Britt Lower in Severance and believe the complex duality of her performance is the most impressive achievement of any actor this cycle. And though the voting bodies for the Critics Choice and the TCAs are very different, it still feels significant that Bates was able to upset a performance that otherwise swept awards (including the TCA last year) in a voting body composed of critics. She and Noah Wyle seem to have the most individual passion of the lineup, and it certainly does not hurt that both are widely predicted to win Emmys. I lean Bates over Wyle because of how much Matlock overperformed; the show managed to land Outstanding Achievement in Drama and Outstanding New Series nominations, which showcases how much the passion for Bates has propelled her show. Noah Wyle does feel like the people’s choice here, however, and I would not be remotely shocked to see him win.