2025 Emmy Predictions

At this point in the race, the top 7 slots in this category seem all but sewn up. The shows in the top 7 have some mixture of strong critical reception, strong audience reception, strong previous industry support, and strong winter precursor performances. What puts The White Lotus ahead of the pack is a combination of the buzz of its cast, an easy win package to assemble, and its previous Emmy history. It is a clear actors' favorite and has won the Best Series Emmy, PGA, WGA, and SAG Ensemble before. If the industry adores Season 3 like it did the first two seasons, I believe it will win. However, I'm looking out for The Last of Us, Severance, and The Pitt, since a great showing from those shows on Emmy nominations morning and a weaker one from The White Lotus could tip the scales in their favor. At the TCAs, Severance performed the best, but The Pitt and The White Lotus had solid showings as well, so while I am still leaning The White Lotus for series, there is a very possible chance Severance continues to dominate.

The last slot in this category could be any of Squid Game, Paradise, The Handmaid's Tale, Bad Sisters, House of the Dragon, and The Day of the Jackal. Paradise is an especially compelling option given its viewership and very likely above-the-line nomination in Sterling K. Brown. But at the end of the day, Squid Game was arguably #2 in Drama Series last time it competed and is the most watched show of the cycle. Surely that should be enough to propel it to that final slot? 

When there were six slots up for grabs in Drama Actor, this category was a lot more frustrating. But despite Eddie Redmayne's Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and SAG nomination and Lee Jung-jae's stature as a previous Emmy winner for this role, it will be difficult for either to land a nomination over anyone in this top 5. Noah Wyle has perhaps the most fervor out of anyone in this lineup for his grounded yet heartbreaking performance as Dr. Robby, Pedro Pascal has won SAG for the first season of The Last of Us and has a scene this season that brought everyone to tears, Adam Scott and Gary Oldman are previous nominees and standouts in shows that are locked in Drama Series, and Sterling K. Brown is an industry darling who is the lead of one of Hulu's most watched shows of the year.

Despite the online vitriol Bella Ramsey has received for their chilling turn as Ellie this season, I still believe they are poised to win this category due to the love The Last of Us's first season received from actors. The show received numerous guest actor and actress nominations (winning both categories), while Pedro Pascal was able to win SAG over Emmy winner Kieran Culkin. Kathy Bates won Critics' Choice over Emmy winner Anna Sawai, but typically winning Critics' Choice solidifies a nomination (unless you're Liev Schreiber), not a win. She and Keri Russell should both be safe for nominations given their nominations at every winter precursor. Britt Lower is in a more precarious position given her lack of recognition anywhere for Severance's first season, but her tricky dual role this season in a top 3 series contender should hopefully give her the Emmy nomination she deserves. For what it's worth, she gives my favorite performance of any show this Emmys cycle. Her TCA nomination (which Kathy Bates also received) is a nice plus, however, and does make me a bit more confident that she gets in. Finally, Elisabeth Moss was the lone nomination for the previous season of The Handmaid's Tale. Though the series finale disappointed, the show has remained in the conversation enough for me to think she repeats this feat. I have my eye on Melanie Lynskey and Sharon Horgan, though, who were also nominated the last time Elisabeth Moss was. 

The supporting actor and actress categories have the potential to solely be a White Lotus bonanza. Of the White Lotus men, Walton Goggins seems to be the clear MVP, especially with his flashy departure in the season finale. Combine that with the sheer good will he's amassed over the years as a goofy but committed performer, and he feels like an easy winner. If there is an upset, however, Tramell Tillman is who I'd place my bets on. Despite not being the lead, he is arguably the face of Severance, with Tillman's unnerving mannerisms and quaint line deliveries being key to many of the show's best scenes. He even landed a TCA nomination this year, which is a rarity as a supporting performer. John Turturro is also excellent in Severance, but his character simply has less to do this season than the quintessential Mr. Milchick. I do hope that despite the acting branch's tendency to be lazy, Jack Lowden repeats his Emmy nomination for Slow Horses, as he turned in his best performance yet as River Cartwright. My fingers are also crossed for Patrick Ball, who is immediately likable but gradually detestable as Dr. Langdon. I am skeptical of The Pitt getting its relatively unknown supporting cast acting nominations, but Patrick Ball has the advantage of not having much internal competition.

Speaking of a White Lotus bonanza, we're moving onto supporting actress. "Piper, no!" is inarguably the most iconic line of The White Lotus season 3 despite never once being spoken during the show. For that alone, I think Parker Posey has the Emmy sealed. Carrie Coon and Aimee Lou Wood are also popular picks from The White Lotus, while Natasha Rothwell was previously Emmy nominated for the show. The question at this point is if The White Lotus can earn even more nominations in this category, with Leslie Bibb and Michelle Monaghan seeming like the most likely coattail candidates. Outside of that show, Allison Janney was nominated everywhere at the winter precursors, and earning a SAG nomination for a two-episode performance feels especially impressive. Isabela Merced is also unanimously acclaimed for her turn as Dina, even as The Last of Us has vastly dropped in audience reception. I would be shocked to see either miss. Patricia Arquette, however, is someone who I have in largely because I don't know who else would get nominated. Arquette is significantly less present in this season of Severance, and her standout episode is near-universally regarded as the worst one of the entire show. Yet she was nominated for the show's first season, is an industry veteran, and has advantageous ballot placement for half of the nominating ballots. I am sticking with predicting her, but if any of Katherine LaNasa, Taylor Dearden, Dichen Lachman, or Genevieve O'Reilly got nominated in her stead, I would be unsurprised.

If I'm predicting The White Lotus to win series, it's only natural to predict it to win writing as well with its twisted dialogue and careful examination of the wealthy. However, there are a number of more acclaimed shows that could emerge as passion picks. Severance notably won two WGA awards for its first season, besting shows like Better Call Saul, The Bear, and Abbott Elementary, while Andor is the most acclaimed show in contention and feels gut-wrenchingly timely. Despite being the incumbent winner of this category, Slow Horses doesn't seem to have the same push behind it to win, though it seems safe for a nomination. The Last of Us is heavily critiqued for its writing, but "Through the Valley" nonetheless remains one of the most discussed episodes of the entire cycle. And lastly, The Pitt would be higher had it submitted fewer episodes. I'm largely banking on the hope that "2:00 P.M." is seen as enough of a standout to not have too many votes siphoned from it, though it is possible that it gets snubbed for the likes of The Diplomat's explosive season finale "Dreadnought" or previous writing nominee Bad Sisters's "How to Pick a Prick". 

The Last of Us is the only show in contention to have previously won DGA (against a juggernaut like Succession, no less), and it is arguably the most technically impressive show of the lot. After all, it's not hard to see it getting 20+ nominations like it did for its first season. However, I think it loses to the visually distinct Severance, even if the show gets nominations for "Cold Harbor" and "Chikhai Bardo" and splits votes. The White Lotus has won a directing Emmy before, but beating Dopesick is not the most astonishing feat, so I'm skeptical of its chances against The Last of Us and Severance. "Who Are You?" is up there with "6:00 P.M." as the two most well-regarded episodes of the cycle, and both are chaotic, heartbreaking episodes of television that work as well as they do because of their skillful direction. I just hope that Andor and The Pitt submitting multiple episodes does not work against them. And finally, Slow Horses is coming off of arguably being #2 in Drama Series, landing a writing win, and doing well at the winter precursors, so it would be a bit strange for it to miss directing.

I don't have all that much to say about these picks, other than my insistence that if Squid Game manages to get Drama Series, its MVP Gong Yoo should get nominated too.

I'm excited for the Unbelievable reunion between Kaitlyn Dever and Merritt Wever here, though I think Dever has the edge here.

Last year, perhaps the biggest upset of the night was when Hacks season 3 beat The Bear season 2, which had just broken the record for most Emmys won by a single comedy show season. Now, after PGA, DGA, WGA, Critics' Choice, and Golden Globe wins for that season and an equally acclaimed fourth season, Hacks is returning the clear frontrunner. If any show beats it, however, it is probably The Studio, which has charmed Hollywood by humorously thrashing it. It also has more showy technical aspects than Hacks and can easily win directing for its one-shot episode aptly titled "The Oner". The rest of the nominees are unlikely to win series, as they each seem to be mostly past their prime awards-wise (though Only Murders in the Building did win SAG ensemble). However, they all seem fairly safe for the nomination, with each securing an above-the-line guild nomination at winter. Nobody Wants This seems the flimsiest, as its PGA miss despite being a populist Netflix show feels suspicious and its WGA nomination was for new series, not for comedy series. But with its two leads securely in for the nomination, I don't think it'll miss. Unless, of course, late breaker The Rehearsal follows in Jury Duty's footsteps and manages a surprise nomination here. A few days ago, it landed a TCA Program of the Year nomination, whose nominees almost always land above-the-line nominations at the Emmys. The Rehearsal is very possible in Comedy Writing and Comedy Directing, so a Comedy Series nomination is not as out of reach as it might have seemed a few weeks ago.

Unlike Drama Actor, Comedy Actor is actually much tougher now that it's down to 5 slots. I don't like excluding SAG nominee Ted Danson for A Man on the Inside (since in a just world, he would be winning) or previous Emmy nominee Steve Martin for Only Murders in the Building, but the former would be a lone nominee and the latter has missed to the likes of Martin Short, Jeremy Allen White, and Jason Segel before at the Emmys. I have Martin Short out front because of his shocking SAG win over Globe winner Jeremy Allen White and Critics' Choice winner Adam Brody, but if voters love The Studio, Seth Rogen could win too.

Jean Smart will win a fourth consecutive Emmy for Hacks. In other news, water is wet. I feel safe having previous winners Ayo Edebiri and Quinta Brunson at #2 and #3, and Kristen Bell landed nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, and SAG this year for Nobody Wants This. Selena Gomez has a spotty track record when it comes to getting nominated for Only Murders in the Building, but her competition is Natasha Lyonne hot off of her AI studio controversy and Uzo Aduba in a Netflix show that she would be the lone nomination for. Though both actresses have stronger Emmys history, I'll stick with Gomez landing another nomination for Only Murders in the Building.

Picking a frontrunner in Comedy Supporting Actor is fairly difficult. Ebon Moss-Bachrach won this category last year, but after losing the Golden Globe, missing the SAG nomination, and not having much to do in this season of The Bear, I'm skeptical of his chances this year. Paul W. Downs is very fun in Hacks and has a veritable tape in "A Slippery Slope", but I don't think this is a performances actors will ever seriously go for. Ike Barinholtz is hilarious in The Studio and would be my personal pick for the win, but I don't think he's even considered a standout the way Seth Rogen and Catherine O'Hara are. Harrison Ford got a SAG nomination this year over performers like Jason Segel, Steve Martin, and the aforementioned Ebon Moss-Bachrach, but it would be strange for him to go from Emmy snub to Emmy winner for this role. No one else has a particularly convincing argument, though, so I reluctantly have him winning. To round out the seven, Tyler James Williams and Bowen Yang have been perennial nominees in this category, while Michael Urie won Critics' Choice.

Like Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Liza Colón-Zayas is the reigning champion in this category. Unlike him, she was nominated at SAG and had much baitier material this season than last. It would be strange for her to win an Emmy for last season, where her biggest tape was singing at karaoke, and not for this season, where she has an entire episode that revolves around her character. I am personally hoping for Hacks to add Hannah Einbinder to its win haul, but her three consecutive losses at the Emmys while her costar has been taking home trophies and her SAG miss this year despite being a co-lead makes me doubt this as a possibility. However, I maintain that this is a two-horse race. Though their shows are lower-tier contenders, Janelle James, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Jessica Williams have all been nominated the last time they competed, so I feel confident that they'll get in again. Catherine O'Hara and Kathryn Hahn are scene-stealers in The Studio and can easily snag nominations as well, but I do think the former is too underutilized and the latter too underwritten to win. And if Hacks takes off and Paul W. Downs becomes win-competitive, Meg Stalter could possibly sneak in.

Hacks will win Writing for the best episode of the entire show. If it is as strong of a contender as I think it is, The Studio should easily get a Writing nomination for its snappy dialogue and hilarious bits. Abbott Elementary, What We Do in the Shadows, and The Bear were all nominated at WGA last year. The only difficult slot is the last one, but I'm hoping that Only Murders in the Building's SAG Ensemble win indicates strong overall passion for the show and that it can get a Writing nomination like its first two seasons did. I also think The Rehearsal could possibly pull off a Jury Duty-esque writing nomination.

This award tends to go to the show that has the flashier direction of the top 2 shows in Series. Though Hacks has won a directing Emmy and two DGA awards, these wins occurred when its main competition submitted three episodes and subsequently split votes. It is a well-directed show, but I don't think it can compete with The Studio's one-take episode about one-take shots. The Bear is expected to have a fall from grace for its mediocre third season, but it still managed three DGA nominations at winter. As a result, I'm predicting that both "Napkins" and "Tomorrow" get nominated. I am also predicting The Rehearsal to land a richly deserved directing nomination for its outrageous Captain Sully episode "Pilot's Code", since the passion that led to its TCA Program of the Year nomination should manifest somewhere. However, I have kept in mind that Abbott Elementary's first directing nomination was for its third season, and the director that helmed that episode also directed "Please Touch Museum". And lastly, the dastardly multi-cam slot is up for grabs now that The Ms. Pat Show has taken a year off. It's difficult to predict which multi-cam show Emmy voters will gravitate towards, but Mid-Century Modern has been campaigned a bit by Hulu and has solid reviews.

Is Bryan Cranston winning the Emmy? "Oh yeah!"

Jamie Lee Curtis and Kaitlin Olson have been nominated for their roles previously, but I have a hard time seeing them beat Zoë Kravitz's tour de force performance as Zoë Kravitz. Julianne Nicholson is delightfully unhinged in Hacks and Cynthia Erivo is the name on everyone's lips between Wicked, the Tonys, and her performance in Poker Face, so I expect both to be nominated as well. Lastly, Ariana Grande may join her Wicked co-star in this category due to how popular her Saturday Night Live hosting stint was. Her "Domingo: Bridesmaids Speech" skit was the most viewed Saturday Night Live sketch of the season! 

Adolescence is one of the most acclaimed shows of the year and one of Netflix's most viewed English-language shows. It's culturally relevant and has a genuine chance at winning all of Limited Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Writing, and Directing. The Penguin won WGA, but I don't think it can usurp Adolescence's momentum. It's still a clear #2, however, and can absolutely win Limited Actor and Actress. Dying for Sex may not be highly viewed, but it is well-reviewed and has knockout performances from Michelle Williams and Jenny Slate that should hopefully keep it in the conversation. Say Nothing is a show that hasn't shown up many places, but it checks enough boxes as a writers' push (WGA nomination, USC scripter win, BAFTA International Series nomination) that could surge in passion at the Emmys like a Fleishman Is in Trouble. And lastly, Disclaimer is a show that I think is in danger of missing due to the inexplicable misses at PGA (despite being a high-profile show) and WGA (despite having no competition). However, I don't feel good about having an entire category made up of writers' pushes, which prevents me from slotting in Black Mirror in its stead. Nor do I remotely buy Monsters after it also missed PGA and WGA. If I grow bolder, I might take out Disclaimer, but at the moment its DGA nomination is enough for me to keep it in.

Colin Farrell managed to win the Globe, the Critics' Choice award, and the SAG award over incumbent Emmy winner Richard Gadd. Stephen Graham is wonderful in Adolescence, but even though Adolescence may be an even stronger show than Baby Reindeer, it's hard for me to see a performance that beat Richard Gadd lose to Stephen Graham. Kevin Kline got nominated everywhere, while Cooper Koch and Jake Gyllenhaal were nominated at the Globes for their roles. I could see either or both of the latter two miss, but this is honestly such a weak category that I'm not sure who they would miss for. I would love to see Paul Giamatti get nominated, though!

This does feel like a race between Cristin Milioti and Michelle Williams, but despite Milioti's Critics' Choice win and seemingly strong show, I think Williams's more traditionally baity performance, higher stature as an actress, and TCA nomination propel her ahead. Cate Blanchett, like Kevin Kline, landed nominations at every precursor for Disclaimer but is a non-factor for the win. For the last two slots, I'm banking on a potential Say Nothing surge propelling Lola Petticrew to a nomination and Kaitlyn Dever's hype for The Last of Us pushing her to a nomination here.

After Episode 3 of Adolescence, I should hope that Owen Cooper's Emmy has already been engraved. Javier Bardem was nominated at SAG for his performance and could upset due to his much higher name recognition, but I don't think there's a lot of passion for him in Monsters. Rhenzy Feliz, Rob Delaney, and Ashley Walters all play complicated but ultimately likable characters in shows that are likely getting Series nominations. For the last slot, I'm taking a big swing with Diego Luna. I don't think he's getting nominated for Andor, but I think between his Golden Globe nomination for La Máquina and his current buzz for Andor, he has enough visibility to land an Emmy nomination.

Like Owen Cooper, Erin Doherty's Emmy has probably been engraved from the moment Episode 3 aired. Deirdre O'Connell and Jenny Slate are powerhouses in their respective shows and will easily get nominated, but I don't think anyone's touching Doherty. Chloë Sevigny is memorable in Monsters, which seems poised to be embraced by actors if no one else. Christine Tremarco gives a subdued but heartbreaking performance, and if Adolescence lands like it's supposed to, she should probably get a nomination here. Finally, I have Cristin Milioti getting a nomination for Black Mirror not because she won the Astra but because she has a lot of hype for her turn in The Penguin and has been the face of Black Mirror season 7's marketing. 

Adolescence is winning Best Miniseries, and Writing is certainly a part of this critically acclaimed show's package. The Penguin won WGA against Say Nothing and Presumed Innocent, but I have Presumed Innocent out due to its lack of passion and excitement at this point in the race. Say Nothing is a show that benefits from more people catching up with it due to its modest awards run, but Presumed Innocent already seems like an afterthought in this category. There is no reason Dying for Sex would get into the Best Miniseries category and miss Writing given its exquisite tonal balance, and Black Mirror was nominated in this category last year for a far less acclaimed season.

Adolescence managed to do a drone shot in an episode shot entirely in one-take. It's winning this award. The Penguin was able to get 3 episodes nominated at DGA, and I think it repeats this feat here. Disclaimer was also nominated at DGA, and even detractors of the show have to admit that it has visual flair. Dying for Sex has some inventive sequences in its finale as it plays with its protagonist's mental state and should have no problem slipping in. Perhaps Monsters or Say Nothing make it in here, but I'm honestly wary of overpredicting these shows.