2025 Emmy Predictions

Since 2018, the Emmy nominations leader—Game of Thrones, Game of Thrones again, Watchmen, The Crown (though it tied nomination-wise with The Mandalorian, which was in its category), Succession, Succession again, and Shōgun—has gone on to win series in its respective field. This year, the Emmy nominations leader was Severance with a whopping 27 nominations. Its previous season received 14 Emmy nominations, so outright doubling its haul is nothing short of impressive. AppleTV+ has also gone all-out to promote it for the Emmys, creating one of the most extensive awards campaigns I have seen in years. With all that said, I am predicting The Pitt because of how much organic passion it has. It did not need to get two writing and directing nominations, nor did it need to completely sweep the Television Critics Awards to remain in contention for this prize. Yet it did, and it feels as though the tide has shifted in The Pitt's favor. Severance's underperformance there is strange considering how critics were its biggest proponents at first, and baffling when you remember that it tied a record for Individual Achievement nominations. I do not want to underestimate Severance's proven industry support, but I also do not want to underestimate The Pitt's fervent audience support. I also think that The White Lotus is being vastly underrated in its awards prospects, as there is a clear path for it to win multiple Emmys thanks to its acting support and lack of votesplitting in Drama Writing and Drama Directing. Casting will be critical to see who wins: on one hand, casting tends to go to shows with a brand-new ensemble (a point for The Pitt and The White Lotus), but on the other, it also tends to go to shows with a lot of acting nominations (a point for Severance and The White Lotus). I maintain that Severance can win series without casting given that it is a sequel season, but The Pitt and The White Lotus cannot.

The outpouring of love and buzz Noah Wyle has received for The Pitt, especially after that heartbreaking meltdown in "7:00 P.M.", does make me think he has the edge here. He also broke a 9-year streak of women winning Individual Achievement in Drama, further cementing his passion. The main draw of the current frontrunner in Drama Series is easy to pencil in as a lock. However, I refuse to discount Adam Scott here after Severance landed the most acting nominations of any drama this year. He also has an immaculate tape in "Cold Harbor", most notably the conversation he has with himself. Both Noah Wyle and Adam Scott are respected actors who have starred in classic shows, but I give Noah Wyle the edge because he is the main source of passion for The Pitt in a way Adam Scott is not for Severance. Both would be exceptional and worthy winners, and I will be cheering no matter the outcome.

Most pundits seem to have Kathy Bates winning here, and not without reason. She is an extremely respected actress giving a performance that was able to beat presumed sweeper Anna Sawai at the Critics Choice. But she is the only nomination for her show, and the last time someone won this category as her show's lone nomination was Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black nine years ago. She could certainly repeat this feat, but I think Beau Bridges was a very possible get for the show considering the Guest Actor in a Drama lineup we ultimately landed on. That brings me to Britt Lower. She is in by far the strongest show here; Matlock and Bad Sisters only have one Emmy nomination, while The Last of Us and The Diplomat missed Writing, Directing, and their widely predicted Supporting Actress contender. Her dual performance as Helly R. and Helena Eagan was also the main talking point of the first half of Severance season 2. Though she and Tramell Tillman failed to get recognized anywhere for their excellent work in season 1, I do think they give the standout performances of the season and would be the actors most likely to benefit from the increased Emmy profile of Severance. When Bates is the only nomination for her show, while Lower is one of 27 Emmy nominations for Severance, I am trusting the pool of support Severance has to push her to a win.

I have gone back and forth quite a bit in this category. Before the Emmy nominations, I had Walton Goggins winning the Emmy. He plays the pivotal character in The White Lotus's season finale and has had an absurd amount of press since. He is also an actor that has amassed love from his peers, which I think he could capitalize on for an Emmy win. But as much as I expected Severance to do well at the Emmy nominations, I did not think it would do as well acting-wise as it had. It actually landed more acting nominations than The White Lotus! When Severance seemed like the clear frontrunner in Series, I decided to switch to Tramell Tillman for several reasons: Mr. Milchick is the most iconic character of the show, Tillman has been everywhere thanks to his promotion of Severance and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning, and he also impressively was nominated for Individual Achievement in a Drama Series at TCA despite being a supporting performance. I briefly put Goggins back in first after I switched to The Pitt in Drama Series, but the more I think about it, the more Tillman makes total sense as the supporting actor winner. Even those who are more mixed on this season of Severance cannot deny the sheer brilliance of this performance. Goggins may be a more respected actor career-wise than Tillman, but Tillman seems to have more individual passion for this role. Add in that Severance seems clearly stronger than The White Lotus at this stage, and I think our winner here is Tillman. 

For quite some time, I could not see Parker Posey losing the Emmy for her wildly buzzed about turn as the Lorazepam-popping Victoria Ratliff. The White Lotus has always been a darling with the acting branch, and I doubted actors will be able to resist Posey's wildly funny Southern caricature. She plays the most memorable character in the show. But following The White Lotus's disappointing Creative Arts showing, and (more crucially) The Pitt's seemingly never-ending displays of support, I am instead predicting Katherine LaNasa for her endearing turn as charge nurse Dana. Her performance is fairly subtle, but I think she can ride The Pitt's wave of passion. As a standout in our likely next Best Drama Series winner, she can easily take advantage of The White Lotus's many talented ladies votesplitting and eke out a win here. But personally, I would vote for Carrie Coon's relentlessly honest take on female friendships, especially after her brilliant monologue in the season finale.

I think the safest win of the night for Severance is Writing. Its main competitor in Series, The Pitt, had two episodes nominated: the pilot "7:00 A.M." and the tearjerker "2:00 P.M.". Given writers' affinity for pilot episodes, I suspect The Pitt votes to be divided evenly between both episodes. The White Lotus submitted its most acclaimed episode, but given that the biggest criticism for this season was its writing, I do not think it is beating Severance for its inventive season finale. The only major award Severance season 1 was able to win was the WGA, both for Drama Series and for New Series. Now that it has greatly increased its Emmy profile and is no longer facing a show that has won Writing for every season of its run, I think writers will jump at the chance to award it here.

Severance is bound to split votes for its gamechanging season finale, "Cold Harbor", and its heartbreaking bottle episode "Chikhai Bardo". Meanwhile, The Pitt's shocking "6:00 P.M." is the most beloved episode in a Drama Series frontrunner. "7:00 A.M." is also nominated, but I do not see the relatively simple pilot stealing votes from the climax of the season. If The Pitt wins Series, it will likely win here as well. The runner-up is surely "Cold Harbor", as Severance's memorable finale has been promoted heavily by AppleTV+ (especially its ending shot), and Ben Stiller has always been the show's main draw. There is also a possibility "Chikhai Bardo" pulls a "Hunting"-esque upset, where the flashier episode in the series winner beats the episode with more pedigree behind it, but I no longer have Severance winning series. For what it's worth, Jessica Lee Gagné deserves all of the Emmys for her breathtaking montages and transitions in the seventh episode of Severance.

Everyone loves Abbot on The Pitt, a charming night shift attending physician with decades of experience and oodles of wit. Despite being a Guest Actor, Shawn Hatosy has been very present during The Pitt's press and is just as crucial to the ensemble as anyone. I think that should be enough to carry him to a win, even though The Last of Us technically has more acting support nomination-wise. Jeffrey Wright is great in The Last of Us, but I don't know how compelling it is to give him another Emmy for a role that isn't that prominent all things considered. His standout episode is not a tape on the level of "Long, Long Time" or "Left Behind".

Kaitlyn Dever leaves quite the impact on The Last of Us season 2 with her turn as the menacing, vengeful Abby. But as great as she is in an otherwise mixed season of television, I think Merritt Wever has the edge here. She gives the most accessible Severance performance nominated, grounding the show's high-concept premise with earnest emotion, and it doesn't hurt that she's a bit of an Emmy darling too! However, the main reason I have her winning is Zach Cherry's surprising nomination in Supporting Actor. He is incredible in the show, but the category was stacked with performances from The White Lotus, not to mention competition from Slow Horses and The Pitt. Yet he was able to sneak in, and as Wever's main scene partner, it indicates a level of love for her storyline. Enough love to pull out a win over Dever? I think so.

If you told me two months ago that reigning series champion Hacks—which was coming off of PGA, WGA, DGA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice wins—was not the frontrunner in Comedy Series, I... would assume it was because the industry took to The Studio even more than expected. Nonetheless, I did not see The Studio's absolute domination at the Emmy nominations coming. While Hacks had a few baffling misses (Paul W. Downs, Kaitlin Olson), The Studio landed nods for practically everyone involved. And I do mean everyone; the Comedy Guest Actor category consists of 5 actors from The Studio and a measly one from The Bear. Seth Rogen, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, and Catherine O'Hara all received nominations for their turns. And in total, The Studio racked up a whopping 23 nominations, the most out of any season of comedy ever (tied with The Bear season 2). Hacks did ultimately beat The Bear season 2 last year, but it was against a show that had the baggage of... not exactly being a comedy. The Studio, which is practically a Hollywood joke dispenser, has no such issue. Combined with the fact that The Studio upset Hacks at the TCAs despite the latter's stronger critical reception, and I feel confident that this trophy is going to The Studio.

The Studio managed to land 10 acting nominations for its first season, and Seth Rogen anchors the entire show. He makes Matt Remick just insufferable enough that the satire on the entertainment industry hits hard, but also just passionate enough about film that you can still relate to him. Martin Short did win a SAG award for this season of Only Murders in the Building, but his show flopped with nominations all things considered. He was the show's only acting nod, and the series went from 21 Emmy nominations to only 7. The show's weakness at the Emmys is strange when it won two major awards at SAG, but at the end of the day, I don't see Martin Short standing too much of a chance against the lead of the series frontrunner.

I am not considering an alternative for this category. All five ladies nominated are superb and deserving, but Jean Smart will win her fourth Emmy for Hacks. It is her best season yet, she has never had a tape as strong as "A Slippery Slope", and Hacks is coming off of its strongest precursor run to date (with Jean Smart sweeping all of the Globe, the Critics Choice, the SAG, and the TCA for her previous season). Plus, the only show seemingly stronger than Hacks, The Studio, does not have a contender in this category. Dare I say this is the lock of the night?

Harrison Ford is sublime in Shrinking, and I have a hunch that he is AppleTV+'s push for the award over Ike Barinholtz. I found Barinholtz hilarious in The Studio, and he was my personal MVP for the show, but I don't think he's perceived as a standout of the series like Seth Rogen, Catherine O'Hara, and Kathryn Hahn are. Meanwhile, Ford is practically the face of Shrinking, with his gruff but lovable Paul stealing nearly every scene. And awards bodies have taken note; he was nominated at the Golden Globes in a combined supporting actor category, at SAG in a category that combines lead and supporting performers in a comedy series (over the lead of Shrinking, Jason Segel, no less!), and at TCA in another category that combines lead and supporting performers in a comedy series. He has serious individual passion for this role and an enormous amount of industry respect, which I think pushes him ahead for the win.

Look. I want Hannah Einbinder to finally win her Emmy for Hacks. You probably want Hannah Einbinder to finally win her Emmy for Hacks. But I am just not convinced actors care for her performance enough to reward it with an Emmy win, even if this is her best season yet. Hacks's weakest pool of support is with actors, from SAG ensemble being the only major winter award the show lost last season, to it only ever managing one individual SAG nomination (Jean Smart) every year, to Paul W. Downs shockingly missing Supporting Actor despite being an incumbent nominee in the incumbent series winner. I do not feel comfortable predicting actors to go above and beyond for Hacks when it is not even the frontrunner for Series anymore. Instead, I am betting on Catherine O'Hara for The Studio. The show had an unprecedented amount of support at the Creative Arts, winning nine Emmys total (the most out of any show thus far), and is looking like our clear Best Comedy Series winner. Catherine O'Hara is an iconic, Emmy-winning actress and has a number of standout scenes. The Studio also seems like too strong of a show to only win Actor and Directing along with Series. I think O'Hara takes this category by a hair, though I believe this is still anyone's game.

Even though Hacks is unlikely to win Series, I think it will win Writing for the most masterful episode of the show to date, "A Slippery Slope". It is a poignant payoff to the four seasons we have seen Deborah and Ava grow as characters, and its escalation is nothing short of brilliant. This is not even mentioning the justified outrage from the industry in response to Stephen Colbert's late night show's abrupt canceling, which makes the core message of this episode more relevant than ever. If The Studio is just sweeping, then "The Promotion" can definitely come along for the ride, but I think that writers will back Hacks.

The Studio has a one-take episode about a one-take scene. Ever since I saw "The Oner", I had a feeling that it would win the Emmy. Hacks has won directing prizes before, but I don't think it's much of a threat here since every single win it has was against a 3-way votesplit from the frontrunner. The true feat of this category, however, is The Rehearsal's hysterical "Pilot's Code". Who else but Nathan Fielder would direct himself growing up as Captain Sully, only to cap off the episode with the idea that Evanescence's "Bring Me to Life" was what motivated the iconic pilot to perform the Miracle on the Hudson?

There is a chance Jon Bernthal benefits from the five-way votesplitting between The Studio's guest actors and from the passion "Napkins" has accrued. But who could deny Bryan Cranston's hilariously greedy turn as Continental CEO Griffin Mill, especially after his sublime physical comedy in the finale? I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, and I think Emmy voters will too.

Julianne Nicholson could absolutely win an Emmy à la Laurie Metcalf; both were memorable guest actresses in Hacks with zany personalities. Jamie Lee Curtis could also repeat for her sensitive performance in "Ice Chips", though her main co-star Abby Elliott was snubbed. But when both of their respective shows had underwhelming nomination hauls, I have to go with Zoë Kravitz's uproarious portrayal of Zoë Kravitz. Like Bryan Cranston, she dominates the last few episodes of The Studio, whether she is feigning humility or high on shrooms. Actors have clearly taken to The Studio, so I think she pulls off the Guest Actress win here.

I don't have to write too much to explain myself here, do I? Adolescence will follow the footsteps of Beef and Baby Reindeer as the late-breaking, critically raved, chart-topping Netflix miniseries that wins Best Limited Series by a wide margin. The Penguin has a lot more nominations than Adolescence, but then again, True Detective: Night Country had more than Baby Reindeer and was not that close to winning. The Penguin also has the notable miss of Rhenzy Feliz in Supporting Actor, which is glaring since it was one of the most barren fields. Meanwhile, Adolescence has received nominations everywhere it mattered, getting its entire submitted cast nominated. It hasn't missed a beat, and the question for me is not if Adolescence will win Series, but if it will win every above-the-line category it is up for.

Colin Farrell swept the Critics Choice, the Golden Globe, and the SAG award over reigning Emmy champion in this category Richard Gadd. And for good reason: his transformative performance in The Penguin takes a character that could easily become a caricature and instead both humanizes him and makes him terrifying. Yet I sense that he will be another Anya Taylor-Joy: destined to lose the Emmy to an even stronger performance that proceeds to sweep the winter awards. Stephen Graham is the heart of the bona fide sensation that is Adolescence, and the possibility of rewarding his soul-crushing turn may prove too strong to resist. He also may have more individual passion than Farrell as of late, which can be indicated by his TCA nomination. This is still a very close race, but I am inclined to predict the more sympathetic performance in the much stronger show.

I will probably flip flop between Michelle Williams in Dying for Sex and Cristin Milioti in The Penguin until September 14th. However, my gut is currently telling me Williams has the edge due to a few key reasons. One, Williams is giving the more traditionally baity performance as an endearing terminally ill woman who wants to explore her own sexuality before she passes away. Milioti is chilling in The Penguin, but actors have historically not been the kindest to performances portraying complicated, villainous women. Two, Dying for Sex got about as many Emmy nominations as it possibly could have. Yes, it got 9 Emmy nominations to The Penguin's 24, but it is a fairly low-budget, small-scale miniseries with only a handful of recurring characters. The fact that it got all of Writing, Directing, Casting, Supporting Actor for Rob Delaney (who is great but only becomes prominent about halfway through the show), Supporting Actress for Jenny Slate, and Series alongside its Williams nod is more than enough for the kind of show that it is. Meanwhile, The Penguin failing to get Rhenzy Feliz into Supporting Actor still feels like a red flag for its acting support considering how weak the category is and how much screen-time he has. This is not to say that Dying for Sex is ahead of The Penguin in Series; The Penguin is still most likely #2 to Adolescence. But because of the kind of performance Milioti is giving, I think Dying for Sex is too comfortable of a #3 for Williams to not be at risk to usurp her. And three, I think Williams getting an Individual Achievement in Comedy nomination at TCA while Milioti missed an Individual Achievement in Drama nomination could showcase that the former is peaking at the right time. But out of every category I am currently predicting, this is the win I feel the least certain about.

Meanwhile, one of the wins I feel most certain about is Owen Cooper in Adolescence. Though Stephen Graham is the show's creator, Cooper is the face of Adolescence and arguably the true lead. He is manipulative and terrifying as Jamie, but also visibly a scared, scorned teenage boy. No one in this category really comes close to matching his feat, and it would be absolutely absurd if Adolescence won Series without Cooper picking up a trophy for his tour de force. I suppose the alternate here is Javier Bardem, who was nominated at the Golden Globes and at SAG for his role as the Menendez patriarch, but I just think Cooper is taking this.

Similarly, I don't think Owen Cooper's primary scene partner Erin Doherty loses this award. She functions as an audience surrogate of sorts as she slowly becomes horrified by the boy sitting across from her, but she adds so much more to this character with her gestures and facial expressions. Given the strength of Adolescence, I don't think she is remotely at risk of losing. However, I think the clear alternate here is Jenny Slate, who has a much more substantial role and is nearly as acclaimed for Dying for Sex as Michelle Williams is. It is Slate's best performance to date, and I would love to see her win an Emmy for it! I doubt that she is all that likely to upset, though.

The Penguin won the WGA in the winter, but it was over Say Nothing and Presumed Innocent, neither of which are remotely strong contenders. Against potential sweeper Adolescence, I highly doubt it wins. Writers love to go with of-the-moment shows that are also highly acclaimed, and Adolescence checks both of those boxes to a T.

Adolescence has four episodes that were shot in one take. One episode is one of the most acclaimed episodes of the entire Emmy cycle. Another ends in a jaw-dropping drone shot. I do not see how Adolescence loses directing. The Penguin is also wonderfully directed, but when you also consider the votesplitting it will likely face, I don't think it stands a chance here.