2025 Emmy Predictions

Since 2018, the Emmy nominations leader—Game of Thrones, Game of Thrones again, Watchmen, The Crown (though it tied nomination-wise with The Mandalorian, which was in its category), Succession, Succession again, and Shōgun—has gone on to win series in its respective field. This year, the Emmy nominations leader was Severance with a whopping 27 nominations. For context, Emmy sweeper Succession season 4 also received 27 nominations. Its previous season received 14 Emmy nominations, so outright doubling its haul is nothing short of impressive. Severance managed to grow in practically every capacity; from four acting nominations to nine, from one directing nomination to two, and from six tech nominations to thirteen. It has surged in support practically everywhere, and the cards seemed to have aligned for its series win with Succession out of the way. However, I am keeping my eye out for The Pitt and The White Lotus. The former massively overperformed with its double writing and directing nominations, while the latter continues to dominate acting-wise even if its eight total acting nominations feels like a letdown considering its former glory. Casting will be critical to see who wins: on one hand, casting tends to go to shows with a brand-new ensemble (a point for The Pitt and The White Lotus), but on the other, it also tends to go to shows with a lot of acting nominations (a point for Severance and The White Lotus). Severance can win series without casting given that it is a sequel season, but The Pitt and The White Lotus cannot.

The outpouring of love and buzz Noah Wyle has received for The Pitt, especially after that heartbreaking meltdown in "7:00 P.M.", does make me think he has the edge here. After The Pitt's incredible showing at the Emmys, I have reason to believe that the main draw of the show that is at worst top 3 has a strong chance at winning. Yet the top series tends to win one of Actor or Actress as long as it has an eligible contender and does not face substantive votesplitting, so I refuse to discount Adam Scott here. He also has an immaculate tape in "Cold Harbor", most notably the conversation he has with himself. Both Noah Wyle and Adam Scott are respected actors who have starred in classic shows, but I give Noah Wyle the edge because he is the main source of passion for The Pitt in a way Adam Scott is not for Severance. Both would be exceptional and worthy winners, however.

Remember when I said the top series tends to win one of Actor or Actress? I think Severance gets its lead actress prize thanks to Britt Lower. She is in by far the strongest show here; Matlock and Bad Sisters only have one Emmy nomination, while The Last of Us and The Diplomat missed Writing, Directing, and their widely predicted Supporting Actress contender. Her dual performance as Helly R. and Helena Eagan was also the main talking point of the first half of Severance season 2. Though she and Tramell Tillman failed to get recognized anywhere for their excellent work in season 1, I do think they give the standout performances of the season and would be the actors most likely to benefit from the increased Emmy profile of Severance. I am not counting out Kathy Bates, though, as she is a far more respected actress giving a performance that was able to beat presumed sweeper Anna Sawai at the Critics Choice. Bates and Lower each have enough individual passion to land TCA nominations, and I might be tempted to predict the former if she wins the TCA. But when Bates is the only nomination for her show, while Lower is one of 27 Emmy nominations for Severance, I am trusting the pool of support Severance has to push her to a win.

Before the Emmy nominations, I had Walton Goggins winning the Emmy. He plays the pivotal character in The White Lotus's season finale and has had an absurd amount of press since. He is also an actor that has amassed love from his peers, which I think he could capitalize on for an Emmy win. But as much as I expected Severance to do well at the Emmy nominations, I did not think it would do as well acting-wise as it had. It actually landed more acting nominations than The White Lotus! With Severance now seeming like the clear frontrunner in Series, I think the tide has turned in Tramell Tillman's favor. Mr. Milchick is the most iconic character of the show, and Tillman has been everywhere thanks to his promotion of Severance and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. He also impressively was nominated for Individual Achievement in a Drama Series at TCA despite being a supporting performance. Though Goggins has a lot of goodwill in the industry, I suspect that Tillman has more singular passion for this role. And at any rate, wouldn't it be strange if Severance won Best Drama Series without Tillman taking home a trophy? 

Though Katherine LaNasa does seem primed to benefit from a potential The White Lotus votesplit, I still don't really see Parker Posey losing the Emmy for her wildly buzzed about turn as the Lorazepam-popping Victoria Ratliff. LaNasa is endearing as charge nurse Dana, but her performance is fairly subtle and one I don't see winning unless The Pitt is winning Drama Series. Meanwhile, The White Lotus has always been a darling with the acting branch, and I doubt actors will be able to resist Posey's wildly funny Southern caricature. She plays the most memorable character in the show. "Piper, no!" isn't even a line said in the show, but it remains the season's most well-known quote! I would personally vote for Carrie Coon's relentlessly honest take on female friendships, especially after her brilliant monologue in the season finale, but her performance just doesn't feel explosive enough to compete with Posey.

I think the safest win of the night for Severance is Writing. Its main competitor in Series, The Pitt, had two episodes nominated: the pilot "7:00 A.M." and the tearjerker "2:00 P.M.". Given writers' affinity for pilot episodes, I suspect The Pitt votes to be divided evenly between both episodes. The White Lotus submitted its most acclaimed episode, but given that the biggest criticism for this season was its writing, I no longer think it is beating Severance for its inventive season finale. The only major award Severance season 1 was able to win was the WGA, both for Drama Series and for New Series. Now that it has greatly increased its Emmy profile and is no longer facing a show that has won Writing for every season of its run, I think writers will jump at the chance to award it here.

Severance is bound to split votes for its gamechanging season finale, "Cold Harbor", and its heartbreaking bottle episode "Chikhai Bardo". But since the show was first announced, the main selling point for Severance was that it was directed by Ben Stiller. Combine that with the fact that "Cold Harbor" is the show's most acclaimed episode outside of "The We We Are", and I think "Cold Harbor" will be ultimate pick for Directing. With that being said, The Pitt's shocking "6:00 P.M." can very easily upset as the most beloved episode in a strong contender for the Drama Series trophy. "7:00 A.M." is also nominated, but I do not see the relatively simple pilot stealing votes from the climax of the season. There is also a possibility "Chikhai Bardo" pulls a "Hunting"-esque upset, where the flashier episode in the series winner beats the episode with more pedigree behind it. For what it's worth, Jessica Lee Gagné deserves all of the Emmys for her breathtaking montages and transitions in the seventh episode of Severance.

Everyone loves Abbot on The Pitt, a charming night shift attending physician with decades of experience and oodles of wit. Despite being a Guest Actor, Shawn Hatosy has been very present during The Pitt's press and is just as crucial to the ensemble as anyone. I think that should be enough to carry him to a win, even though The Last of Us technically has more acting support nomination-wise. Jeffrey Wright is great in The Last of Us, but I don't know how compelling it is to give him another Emmy for a role that isn't that prominent all things considered. His standout episode is not a tape on the level of "Long, Long Time" or "Left Behind".

Kaitlyn Dever leaves quite the impact on The Last of Us season 2 with her turn as the menacing, vengeful Abby. But as great as she is in an otherwise mixed season of television, I think Merritt Wever has the edge here. She gives the most accessible Severance performance nominated, grounding the show's high-concept premise with earnest emotion, and it doesn't hurt that she's a bit of an Emmy darling too! However, the main reason I have her winning is Zach Cherry's surprising nomination in Supporting Actor. He is incredible in the show, but the category was stacked with performances from The White Lotus, not to mention competition from Slow Horses and The Pitt. Yet he was able to sneak in, and as Wever's main scene partner, it indicates a level of love for her storyline. Enough love to pull out a win over Dever? I think so.

If you told me a few weeks ago that reigning series champion Hacks—which was coming off of PGA, WGA, DGA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice wins—was not the frontrunner in Comedy Series, I... would assume it was because the industry took to The Studio even more than expected. Nonetheless, I did not see The Studio's absolute domination at the Emmy nominations coming. While Hacks had a few baffling misses (Paul W. Downs, Kaitlin Olson), The Studio landed nods for practically everyone involved. And I do mean everyone; the Comedy Guest Actor category consists of 5 actors from The Studio and a measly one from The Bear. Seth Rogen, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, and Catherine O'Hara all received nominations for their turns. And in total, The Studio racked up a whopping 23 nominations, the most out of any season of comedy ever (tied with The Bear season 2). Hacks did ultimately beat The Bear season 2 last year, but it was against a show that had the baggage of... not exactly being a comedy. The Studio, which is practically a Hollywood joke dispenser, has no such issue. 

The Studio managed to land 10 acting nominations for its first season, and Seth Rogen anchors the entire show. He makes Matt Remick just insufferable enough that the satire on the entertainment industry hits hard, but also just passionate enough about film that you can still relate to him. Martin Short did win a SAG award for this season of Only Murders in the Building, but his show flopped with nominations all things considered. He was the show's only acting nod, and the series went from 21 Emmy nominations to only 7. The show's weakness at the Emmys is strange when it won two major awards at SAG, but at the end of the day, I don't see Martin Short standing too much of a chance against the lead of the series frontrunner.

I am not considering an alternative for this category. All five ladies nominated are superb and deserving, but Jean Smart will win her fourth Emmy for Hacks. It is her best season yet, she has never had a tape as strong as "A Slippery Slope", and Hacks is coming off of its strongest precursor run to date (with Jean Smart sweeping all of the Globe, the Critics Choice, the SAG, and the TCA for her previous season). Plus, the only show seemingly stronger than Hacks, The Studio, does not have a contender in this category. Dare I say this is the lock of the night?

Harrison Ford is sublime in Shrinking, and I have a hunch that he is AppleTV+'s push for the award over Ike Barinholtz. I found Barinholtz hilarious in The Studio, and he was my personal MVP for the show, but I don't think he's perceived as a standout of the series like Seth Rogen, Catherine O'Hara, and Kathryn Hahn are. Meanwhile, Ford is practically the face of Shrinking, with his gruff but lovable Paul stealing nearly every scene. And awards bodies have taken note; he was nominated at the Golden Globes in a combined supporting actor category, at SAG in a category that combines lead and supporting performers in a comedy series (over the lead of Shrinking, Jason Segel, no less!), and at TCA in another category that combines lead and supporting performers in a comedy series. He has serious individual passion for this role and an enormous amount of industry respect, which I think pushes him ahead for the win.

Look. I want Hannah Einbinder to finally win her Emmy for Hacks. You probably want Hannah Einbinder to finally win her Emmy for Hacks. But I am just not convinced actors care for her performance enough to reward it with an Emmy win, even if this is her best season yet. Hacks's weakest pool of support is with actors, from SAG ensemble being the only major winter award the show lost last season, to it only ever managing one individual SAG nomination (Jean Smart) every year, to Paul W. Downs shockingly missing Supporting Actor despite being an incumbent nominee in the incumbent series winner. I do not feel comfortable predicting actors to go above and beyond for Hacks when it is not even the frontrunner for Series anymore. I know that The Bear performed even worse nomination-wise, as it has been dropped from Writing, only got one Directing submission in, and went from 10 acting nominations to 7. But The Bear has already fallen off at several awards bodies, and the passion for Liza Colón-Zayas's performance remained nonetheless. She was the show's sole nomination at the Critics Choice and at TCA! She got nominated at SAG even as Ebon Moss-Bachrach missed! Her Ayo Edebiri-directed episode showcase, "Napkins", was the only episode to get nominated for Directing, beating out series creator Christopher Storer's own submission! And perhaps most crucial of all, her episode "Napkins" was so beloved when it released that it propelled Liza Colón-Zayas to an Emmy win despite her less substantive material for The Bear season 2. If Liza Colón-Zayas could beat Hannah Einbinder when Hacks still won Series, I think she can repeat now that Hacks is merely #2. 

Even if Hacks doesn't win Series, I think it will win Writing for the most masterful episode of the show to date, "A Slippery Slope". It is a poignant payoff to the four seasons we have seen Deborah and Ava grow as characters, and its escalation is nothing short of brilliant. This is not even mentioning the justified outrage from the industry in response to Stephen Colbert's late night show's abrupt canceling, which makes the core message of this episode more relevant than ever. If The Studio is just sweeping, then "The Promotion" can definitely come along for the ride, but I think that writers will back Hacks.

The Studio has a one-take episode about a one-take scene. Ever since I saw "The Oner", I had a feeling that it would win the Emmy. Hacks has won directing prizes before, but I don't think it's much of a threat here since every single win it has was against a 3-way votesplit from the frontrunner. The true feat of this category, however, is The Rehearsal's hysterical "Pilot's Code". Who else but Nathan Fielder would direct himself growing up as Captain Sully, only to cap off the episode with the idea that Evanescence's "Bring Me to Life" was what motivated the iconic pilot to perform the Miracle on the Hudson?

There is a chance Jon Bernthal benefits from the five-way votesplitting between The Studio's guest actors and from the passion "Napkins" has accrued. But who could deny Bryan Cranston's hilariously greedy turn as Continental CEO Griffin Mill, especially after his sublime physical comedy in the finale? I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, and I think Emmy voters will too.

Julianne Nicholson could absolutely win an Emmy à la Laurie Metcalf; both were memorable guest actresses in Hacks with zany personalities. Jamie Lee Curtis could also repeat for her sensitive performance in "Ice Chips", though her main co-star Abby Elliott was snubbed. But when both of their respective shows had underwhelming nomination hauls, I have to go with Zoë Kravitz's uproarious portrayal of Zoë Kravitz. Like Bryan Cranston, she dominates the last few episodes of The Studio, whether she is feigning humility or high on shrooms. Actors have clearly taken to The Studio, so I think she pulls off the Guest Actress win here.

I don't have to write too much to explain myself here, do I? Adolescence will follow the footsteps of Beef and Baby Reindeer as the late-breaking, critically raved, chart-topping Netflix miniseries that wins Best Limited Series by a wide margin. The Penguin has a lot more nominations than Adolescence, but then again, True Detective: Night Country had more than Baby Reindeer and was not that close to winning. The Penguin also has the notable miss of Rhenzy Feliz in Supporting Actor, which is glaring since it was one of the most barren fields. Meanwhile, Adolescence has received nominations everywhere it mattered, getting its entire submitted cast nominated. It hasn't missed a beat, and the question for me is not if Adolescence will win Series, but if it will win every above-the-line category it is up for.

Colin Farrell swept the Critics Choice, the Golden Globe, and the SAG award over reigning Emmy champion in this category Richard Gadd. And for good reason: his transformative performance in The Penguin takes a character that could easily become a caricature and instead both humanizes him and makes him terrifying. Yet I sense that he will be another Anya Taylor-Joy: destined to lose the Emmy to an even stronger performance that proceeds to sweep the winter awards. Stephen Graham is the heart of the bona fide sensation that is Adolescence, and the possibility of rewarding his soul-crushing turn may prove too strong to resist. He also may have more individual passion than Farrell as of late, which can be indicated by his TCA nomination. This is still a very close race, but I am inclined to predict the more sympathetic performance in the much stronger show.

I will probably flip flop between Michelle Williams in Dying for Sex and Cristin Milioti in The Penguin until September 14th. However, my gut is currently telling me Williams has the edge due to a few key reasons. One, Williams is giving the more traditionally baity performance as an endearing terminally ill woman who wants to explore her own sexuality before she passes away. Milioti is chilling in The Penguin, but actors have historically not been the kindest to performances portraying complicated, villainous women. Two, Dying for Sex got about as many Emmy nominations as it possibly could have. Yes, it got 9 Emmy nominations to The Penguin's 24, but it is a fairly low-budget, small-scale miniseries with only a handful of recurring characters. The fact that it got all of Writing, Directing, Casting, Supporting Actor for Rob Delaney (who is great but only becomes prominent about halfway through the show), Supporting Actress for Jenny Slate, and Series alongside its Williams nod is more than enough for the kind of show that it is. Meanwhile, The Penguin failing to get Rhenzy Feliz into Supporting Actor still feels like a red flag for its acting support considering how weak the category is and how much screen-time he has. This is not to say that Dying for Sex is ahead of The Penguin in Series; The Penguin is still most likely #2 to Adolescence. But because of the kind of performance Milioti is giving, I think Dying for Sex is too comfortable of a #3 for Williams to not be at risk to usurp her. And three, I think Williams getting an Individual Achievement in Comedy nomination at TCA while Milioti missed an Individual Achievement in Drama nomination could showcase that the former is peaking at the right time. But out of every category I am currently predicting, this is the win I feel the least certain about.

Meanwhile, one of the wins I feel most certain about is Owen Cooper in Adolescence. Though Stephen Graham is the show's creator, Cooper is the face of Adolescence and arguably the true lead. He is manipulative and terrifying as Jamie, but also visibly a scared, scorned teenage boy. No one in this category really comes close to matching his feat, and it would be absolutely absurd if Adolescence won Series without Cooper picking up a trophy for his tour de force. I suppose the alternate here is Javier Bardem, who was nominated at the Golden Globes and at SAG for his role as the Menendez patriarch, but I just think Cooper is taking this.

Similarly, I don't think Owen Cooper's primary scene partner Erin Doherty loses this award. She functions as an audience surrogate of sorts as she slowly becomes horrified by the boy sitting across from her, but she adds so much more to this character with her gestures and facial expressions. Given the strength of Adolescence, I don't think she is remotely at risk of losing. However, I think the clear alternate here is Jenny Slate, who has a much more substantial role and is nearly as acclaimed for Dying for Sex as Michelle Williams is. It is Slate's best performance to date, and I would love to see her win an Emmy for it! I doubt that she is all that likely to upset, though.

The Penguin won the WGA in the winter, but it was over Say Nothing and Presumed Innocent, neither of which are remotely strong contenders. Against potential sweeper Adolescence, I highly doubt it wins. Writers love to go with of-the-moment shows that are also highly acclaimed, and Adolescence checks both of those boxes to a T.

Adolescence has four episodes that were shot in one take. One episode is one of the most acclaimed episodes of the entire Emmy cycle. Another ends in a jaw-dropping drone shot. I do not see how Adolescence loses directing. The Penguin is also wonderfully directed, but when you also consider the votesplitting it will likely face, I don't think it stands a chance here.