EMMY RACE BREAKDOWN:

This year’s Drama Actor category is stacked, with six top-tier performances in television competing against each other. Each and every single one of these nominees has a case to win and gives an excellent performance. In this article, I will analyze the performances and rank the nominees by the end. Potential spoilers for Better Call Saul S6E7, Ozark S4E11, Severance S1E1, Squid Game S1E6, Succession S3E7, and Succession S3E9 are ahead.

Finally, after participating in award-winning shows like Parks and Recreations and Big Little Lies, Adam Scott managed to get his first Emmy nomination for the Apple TV+ show Severance. Scott portrays Mark Scout, a recently widowed man who deals with depression after his wife’s death by working in Lumon Industries and being part of the Severance program there. For the unaware, in Severance, your work memories and home memories are split, essentially creating two distinct people. In his episode submission “Good News About Hell,” we see Mark’s work persona deal with being promoted to head of the Macrodata Refinement Division after his superior/best friend Petey suddenly disappears. That same day, he is assigned a new severed employee to take under his wing known as Helly R. Meanwhile, Mark’s outer self grieves his wife’s death until he has an unexpected meeting that changes his perspective in certain things. The cool thing about Scott’s performance is how understated it is and how he uses this subtlety to portray two versions of the same character.

While I'm beyond happy Scott received this nomination (especially since it's for one of his finest acting works), I do believe the recognition is the win here. This year’s best actor category might be too stacked for him. His narrative is not as strong as the rest of the contenders, as this is his first nomination in a new show that he’s not widely considered the standout of. I personally think he doesn’t stand a chance against the rest of his competition this year. That being said, Scott is absolutely someone to look out for in future seasons.

Jason Bateman plays Marty Byrde, a financial advisor that is forced to start laundering money for a Mexican cartel in the lake of the Ozarks after a money laundering scheme goes wrong. He and his family then get entangled with local crime families. Bateman selected the episode “Pound of Flesh and Still Kickin” as his episode submission. In it, his character must step outside of his comfort zone and assume the control of the crime family. Marty must make hard choices in a field that he's not comfortable while keeping his cool. However, in the end, a combination of stress and emotions forces him to have a fit of rage.

This is Bateman’s 4th (and final) acting nomination for Ozark. While it's possible that Emmy voters may be compelled to vote for him, as this is their last chance to award his work on the show, I wouldn't personally bet on it. Bateman has already won an Emmy for his work in Ozark (for directing the episode "Reparations"). Plus, the passion behind his performance is not nearly as strong as the passion that his fellow nominees have or the passion that some of his co-stars have. It's not impossible that he wins, but with this competition, I would not bet on it.

Veteran actor Brian Cox plays patriarch Logan Roy in Succession's 3rd season. In this latest installment of the acclaimed HBO series, Logan has to face the aftermath of being exposed by his son Kendall for his past crimes and look after the future of his company. In his episode submission “All The Bells Say,” Logan has to compromise between his and Matsson's visions for the GoJo-Waystar relationship. Afterwards, he’s confronted by his children over their disagreements about the final GoJo deal. He leads them on at first but later turns on them with a shocking reveal that Cox perfectly nails.

This is Cox’s fourth Emmy nomination and second nomination for Succession. He has won an Emmy before many years ago in the Limited Supporting Actor category for Nuremberg, so some people argue that he's overdue for another Emmy (especially for this iconic performance). However, even though he kills as Succession's main antagonist, he’s competing against his TV son (played by Jeremy Strong). Strong's performance tends to get more of attention and prestige (he even won the Drama Actor Emmy over Cox in 2020). Because of this, and because vote-splitting is a very real possibility, I do not personally buy Cox winning.

The man, the myth, the legend. Bob Odenkirk plays Jimmy McGill AKA Saul Goodman in the first half of the final season of Better Call Saul. In these 7 episodes, we saw the development of Jimmy and Kim’s relationship as they develop a complicated and disturbing scheme against Howard Hamlin to ruin his reputation. We also further see Jimmy’s transformation into the Saul Goodman that we all know and love in the “Breaking Bad” timeline. “Plan and Execution" was Odenkirk's episode submission this year, and in it, Jimmy finds himself in a very stressful situation after a last-minute mishap threatens to ruin his plan to take down Howard. It's up to him and Kim to fix their mistake and see their plan executed. After the event, however, Jimmy discovers a terrifying truth and witnesses a shocking event that will change his life forever.

Odenkirk probably has the best narrative to win among the contenders for the Best Actor Drama award. While he has been nominated 5 times for playing this character and 6 times for producing Better Call Saul, he’s yet to win an acting Emmy (or any Emmy above the line). Odenkirk has been playing this legendary character since 2009 and a win for it would be as iconic as the character he portrays. However, this isn't Odenkirk’s last chance to win for Better Call Saul. He will also be in contention next year for the second half of this season. With this half not doing so well nomination-wise, I think it’s far more likely for him to win next year.

Jeremy Strong strikes once again with another killer season of Succession. After exposing his father’s secrets and dividing his family, Strong's character Kendall Roy goes to war and attempts to wage a legal and public-opinion campaign against his father’s leadership while maintaining the company's stability. In Strong's episode submission “Too Much Birthday,” we see Kendall go through different emotions and stages during his extravagant 40th birthday party. As he interacts and argues with different members of his family, the tension between them escalates.

This is Strong’s second Emmy nomination after winning his first for the second season for Succession. He has a very good shot at repeating because of a few reasons: his pitch-perfect performance, everybody pays attention to him when he’s on screen, he has the most acclaimed performance in the show, the popularity and buzz his show has, Succession is nearly a lock to win drama series, and the passion behind Succession's acting is strong. That being said, we should also consider two things: 1. Brian Cox is competing against him, so the vote split could be bad for both of them, and 2. Strong has won before in the past and may not have enough passion to win.

In Squid Game, the acclaimed Korean actor Lee Jung-jae plays Seong Gi-hun, a divorced father with a a huge debt thanks to his gambling. One day, he is invited alongside 455 other people to play a series of children’s games for a chance to win a tremendous amount of money. The only catch is that if you lose a game, you die in a very grotesque way. The episode selected by Lee was “Gganbu." In this episode, the players are forced to choose a partner with no knowledge about what the game entails. Then, they’re informed that they have to play a game of marbles against their partner. Whoever loses the game dies. Gi-hun finds himself in a dilemma because if he wants to win, he’ll have to trick his friend into losing the game.

This is Lee’s first Emmy nom. His performance has been one of the most acclaimed of the season, and he has won multiple awards for it. Gi-hun is not only the protagonist, but the heart and soul of Squid Game. Lee’s performance has failed to lose momentum and he also has a strong narrative to win, as he would become the first Korean actor to win in this category. Due to all of this, I honestly think that even if the race is close, Lee is quite likely to be our Drama Actor winner.

Projected Rankings:

1. Lee Jung-jae - Squid Game

2. Jeremy Strong - Succession

3. Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul

4. Brian Cox - Succession

5. Jason Bateman - Ozark

6. Adam Scott

Will Win: Lee Jung-jae

Could Win: Jeremy Strong/Bob Odenkirk

Should Win: Lee Jung-jae/Jeremy Strong/Bob Odenkirk