By Amy Kim
Less than a week before the Emmy nominations are set to be announced, the TCA nominations have finally come out. As the only major precursor that has all eligible shows this cycle competing together, they provide a lot of insight as to how industry may view these shows in comparison with one another. Today, I'm unpacking the five biggest messages these nominations are sending.
After Hannah Einbinder’s breakdown in “Mrs. Table” and especially after The Bear season 4 sidelined Liza Colón-Zayas, it was tempting to declare the former as the clear frontrunner in Comedy Supporting Actress despite the latter being the reigning champion in the category. However, it has been evident that even though The Bear has declined for its third season, Colón-Zayas has held on thanks to the strength of her performance in “Napkins”. She received nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice (which Einbinder won), and SAG (which Einbinder missed). Now, at the TCAs, both Colón-Zayas and Einbinder are nominated for the first time in Individual Achievement in Comedy. Colón-Zayas is the lone nomination for The Bear, which missed nominations for Ayo Edebiri and Jeremy Allen White in Individual Achievement in Comedy, Program of the Year, and (most embarrassingly) Outstanding Achievement in Comedy. The Bear is unlikely to perform as well at the Emmys for season 3, but Colón-Zayas’s performance all year has demonstrated that she could have enough passion to repeat her Emmy win. But with Hacks looking like the clear frontrunner for Best Comedy Series and Einbinder being praised more than ever for her work in season 4, it will be close between the two. However, with all that being said, I also think Janelle James has an outside shot to win given her juicy material in this season of Abbott Elementary and her 3rd nomination in Individual Achievement in Comedy (which is impressive due to how difficult it is for supporting performers to be nominated).
Though the conversation around Drama Series has largely been whether Severance or The Pitt will win, The White Lotus has been discounted far too early. Yes, the press around the finale was largely negative, and yes, there is a vocal minority of people who find this season to be a step down from the first two. But if there was ever a place for cracks to show in The White Lotus’s awards run, it would be an awards body voted on by critics. However, The White Lotus managed to retain its Outstanding Achievement in Drama and crucially its Program of the Year nominations despite this backlash. When compared to a show like The Last of Us, which also faced criticism for its new season but went from five nominations (Individual Achievement in Drama nods for Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey, Outstanding New Program, Outstanding Achievement in Drama, and Program of the Year) to a measly one (Outstanding Achievement in Drama), the message is clear. The White Lotus season 3 could perform about the same as its predecessor, which arguably would have won Drama Series had it not been competing against Succession season 4.
Cristin Milioti has been out front for the Miniseries Actress Emmy for ages due to her Critics Choice win over reigning champ Jodie Foster and her show The Penguin seeming like a top contender for Best Miniseries. However, Emmy winner Michelle Williams is captivating in Dying for Sex and has been slowly gaining momentum for a win. This culminated in today’s TCA nominations, where Williams surprisingly made it into the Individual Achievement in Comedy category while Milioti surprisingly missed the Individual Achievement in Drama one. This alone doesn’t necessarily say much, as there are a handful of nominees in both categories that are unlikely to be Emmy-nominated. However, this does prove that Williams has individual passion for her performance. If Dying for Sex makes it into the Best Miniseries category, and if Jenny Slate and Rob Delaney receive Emmy nominations alongside Williams, the race between her and Milioti may prove to be too close to call.
Though the 8 nominees in Comedy Series felt all but set in stone before today, I always had an asterisk next to this lineup. If The Rehearsal managed to get nominated for Program of the Year at the TCAs, it had the potential to unseat one of Nobody Wants This, Shrinking, or What We Do in the Shadows. This is because of both its surge in audience passion that feels somewhat reminiscent of Jury Duty’s rise and the fact that in the last 10 years, every Program of the Year nominee at the TCAs landed an above-the-line nomination at the Emmys. Even The Other Two, a show once-considered too small to be noticed by the Emmys, received a writing nomination following its Program of the Year nod. Today, The Rehearsal was recognized at the TCAs for Program of the Year, Outstanding Achievement in Comedy, and Individual Achievement in Comedy for its creator Nathan Fielder. Comedy Actor is likely too tight for Fielder to be recognized—especially given the fact that he is playing himself—but a nomination from the writing branch or directing branch doesn’t seem too out of reach given the former’s tendency to nominate buzzy, critically-acclaimed shows and the latter’s lack of consensus beyond nominations for The Studio and Hacks. I ultimately do not have the guts to outright predict The Rehearsal in Comedy Series next Tuesday, but it is certainly a show to keep your eye on for a potential upset in some categories.
When I say underestimate Severance at your own peril, I am including myself in this statement. I have been fairly mixed on the show’s chances despite my personal adoration of it due to how lukewarm its season 1 reception was at the Emmys and at guilds. However, at the TCA nominations this morning, it received a whopping 5 nominations—the most out of any show nominated—with three of those being Individual Achievement in Drama nominations. For reference, only three other shows have ever gotten three nominees in that category in one year: The Practice, The West Wing, and Succession. What is especially notable is that despite it being a favorite amongst actors for years thanks to its storied ensemble, Succession only achieved this feat for its fourth and final season, which proceeded to nearly sweep the Emmys. Adam Scott, Britt Lower, and Tramell Tillman were the performers highlighted, and it is particularly notable that the latter two were given their relative lack of recognition before Severance. Additionally, for Lower and Tillman to go from not being recognized at any major awards body for Severance’s first season to breaking into a field of nine that combines gender and category placement is impressive and demonstrates both their individual passion and Severance’s overall strength. Yes, this show was always supposed to do well with critics, as critics have largely been the biggest champions for the show. But a performance of this level is unprecedented and shows that its FYC slogan may have more truth to it than previously realized: “There is nothing like Severance”.